Whats the Big Idea?
Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman introduces many new concepts to help us understand the decision process and make more effective decisions as leaders. Kahneman, with a long history as a psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, explains the two main ways or systems in how we think and make decision.[1] Kahneman helps us realize that many leaders in organizations are overconfident in their decisions based on past success.
We see a common thread in Peter Scazzero book on the Emotionally Healthy Leader, that leaders can make very psychology behind these or choices or emotionally unhealthy decisions based on passed success.[2] Often we look to the past for help, when we need to look to Jesus for help, even a new way of doing things. Kahneman in Thinking, Fast and Slow goes into greater detail and psychology in making and understanding the decision process.
Kahneman breaks down decision making into two systems. The first system he introduces is called System #1. System #1 is the fast automatic system of our brain or survival side of decision making. This system kicks in in emergencies and supports us in making decisions very rapidly in a crises. He also introduces System #2 which is the slower more logical side of making a decision. Often this is when we analyze, take time to research, maybe even talk to an expert.
Kahneman introduces six main points, that he calls the Big Idea:
- Understanding System 1 and 2
- Understanding Anchoring
- Understanding the Science of Availability
- Understanding Loss Aversion
- Understanding Framing
- Understanding Sunk Cost’s Fallacity
Each understanding of these six items, will help us as leaders understand the decision process and in the end, help us to make the best decision possible. I have found personally that I have thrived in System #1 in making decisions. With working on large scale construction projects and in crises ministry, I tend to fall apart in System #2. It seems, whenever things slow down, and I have time in System #2, I analyze, evaluate, and disagree with decisions I have made in System #1.
Often in an organization or ministry, things that brought us great success, or even saved the organization or ministry, can work against or hinder the future success of that organization or ministry. In big idea #6, Kahneman shares with us Understaning Sunk Cost’s Fallacity. This is a very difficult threshold to cross and come into, overcome, and lead others into change, but what I am really talking about is transformation.
In my own organization, because of Covid and people upset with local politics, many people left the Northwest, especially in our community. We went from having free meals throughout the week, to a food ministry that exploded. During the peak of Covid we had between 8,000-10,000 people each week coming to the church (System 1). Over time, new people and youth joined the church and school. The long process of learning and being transformed by the word of God (System 2).
At this present time in my life, I have lived most of my time in System #1 or survival thinking. In this time we have almost transported in 50 million pounds of free food for the community, especially for immigrants and refugees. As this crises has lessened over this past six months, I now find more time in Systmem #2 where I am taking time to analyze and being more strategic in our food distribution in Washington State and distributing to other counties.
I am now realizing Kahneman’s Big Idea #6 Understanding Sunk Cost’s Fallacity. In this process, I realize that my time in the food ministry is coming to an end. I struggle with decision, because of all the equipment that has been purchased, all the hours of training, driving, to help our community, elders, widows, orphans, immigrants, and refugees. I realize I am struggling with making a decision for the food ministry to end in time. I have come to realize that I struggle at times with my emotions due to fatigue, I also realize this fatigue is hurting my calling as a pastor, to shepherd the flock. To labor for the food that does not parish. To remember what is at stake here, which is eternity.
In time, I will let go of the food ministry, sell equipment, maybe even make a memory plaque to put on the side of the church for the people. In time, people will forget what God did at the Well Church. In all of this, Kahnemans book on Thinking Fast and Thinking Slow has helped identify that what helped save the church previously, is now starting to hinder the church from growing. In this, I come to my knees, I thank the Lord for His grace and mercy, teaching me, never abandoning me, nor forsaking me. I say to Him, finish the process Lord!
[1] Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking Fast and Thinking Slow.Farrar, Straus and Giroux; 1st edition (April 2, 2013)
[2] Scazzero, Peter. The Emotionally Healthy Leader: How Transforming Your Inner Life Will Deeply Transform Your Church, Team, and the World. Zondervan 2015
About the Author
Greg McMullen
Pastor Greg resides in Lake Stevens WA and pastors a small rural church in the Machias area . The Well Church has a large food ministry in which many different cultures come each week to gather food and counsel. The Church has a small school that is bearing good fruit. Pastor Greg has a large family of 10 children and enjoys fishing and hiking.4 responses to “Whats the Big Idea?”
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Greg,
I know that the food ministry has been a passion of yours and something that has been close to your heart. It has been an amazing way to reach out to your community and having practical needs met. It is not a simple thing to stop, as it has been what God has called you to do for a long season. I think it is pretty remarkable that this reading has encouraged you in this direction. This is an impacting statement:
Kahnemans book on Thinking Fast and Thinking Slow has helped identify that what helped save the church previously, is now starting to hinder the church from growing
I pray God gives you wisdom in the when and the how of shutting down a ministry that has been blessed and used of God.
How might you reframe “sunk cost”? In God’s perspective… how does He view liquidating assets that have come with the food ministry?
Kristy, you are an incredible person and encourager. You always see and call out the best in others. The food ministry has been wonderful, but also has been a great undertaking, struggle for its birth and to truly live.
We do a great deal to help immigrants and people economically disadvantage. From helping people gain employment with local companies, starting businesses, even gaining U.S. Citizenship. I have now started teaching leadership courses were people can earn a leadership certificate or Ministry certificate.
I have tried in the past to hand over the food ministry to other leaders, unfortunately it has not worked out and I have had to jump back in to lead, correct, and retrain. In this time, I have three leaders that are now taking responsibility for the food ministry, distribution, and transporting or trucking I should say.
My goal is to hopefully supervise the food ministry, which will be around 14-18 hours a week for me. If things fail with the leaders this time, I no longer have the energy and time to dedicate to the food ministry. Something will have to give, I just don’t have enough energy to cover all three ministries.
It is very hard, because we are invested with forklifts, box trucks, refridgerated trailers, and farmers supporting the food ministry. A great deal of people have given for this ministry to live.
If this new team fails, I cannot jump back in to the food ministry without hurting the other two ministries. I will be forced to let something go, which brings me to #6. Understanding Sunk Cost’s Fallacity.
I hope that helps explain #6 and how it applies to our ministry at the Well Church. Thank you for praying, your kindness, and support. You are truly a gift.
Peace and Blessings.
PG
Hey Greg,
Thank you for honestly assessing the food ministry and realizing you were operating out of a genuine care for people, but also out of a system one mode of thinking. This is why I believe, as difficult as it may be, leaders need to not be so busy. Leaders need time to observe and reflect deeply about what they and their people are doing and why they are doing it (this requires system two thinking). I have heard the analogy of dance floor and balcony when it comes to leadership. Balcony is where we are when we are observing what is going one (system two). Dance floor is us getting in the action (system one). I am glad to hear you found Kahneman’s book encouraging and that you are leaning more into system two. But this is easier said than done – particularly when you have a large family, a church to pastor, and a doctorate to work on.
My question for you, Greg, is this: what are things you are able to do in your life right now that bring joy and refreshment?
May God’s grace surprise you with moments of reprieve from all the demands so that you can spend more time in system two.
David, You are very observant and a brilliant young man. As you probably noticed, I often went for walks by myself in S. Africa. I refer to this as my Enoch time.
During Covid I preached heavily, almost 3x-5x each day, a great number of people accepted Christ and were baptized during this time. God’s grace was upon me, however when His grace lifted, I have tried to keep going and I just cannot do it in my own strength. It is something I am struggling with to let go.
For some reason I felt God’s Grace on me in S. Africa with walking. Almost as if God himself was propelling my legs, encouraging me to take time for self-care.
Your balcony analogy is a very true and almost a prophetic statement in what the Lord reminded me in Cape Town. On a very large construction project, there was a problem with the flow of the project. Even though the project was still 10 stories below ground. I built a platform towards the center of the project. I used this “balcony” to observe, but most of all, to lead while others did the physical work. On a construction project or larger church, we had an army of workers or volunteers. Not so much in rural area. Not so much in this season in my life.
Self Ego problem. I do too much for the size of our church. I am used to a bigger church or construction project with more resources available. I struggle to do small church.
As in the Exodus Journey, The Cloud by day and Pillar of fire at night gave the Israelites direction. Im afraid that Cloud and Pillar of fire has moved on and many are waiting/hoping for it to come back, including myself.
To answer your question about what I am doing in my life right now? I have continued to walk to the church/home twice a day which is 8 miles a day. I have made priorities and or boundaries in my life during my time as a doctoral student.
Personally
1. My relationship with God (Enoch Time)
2. Spending more time in His Word and Prayer
3. Being Present with my wife and children
4. Being at home 2 days a week. Friday is dedicated to the Doctoral Program and Sunday sermon prep. But the kids come and go and we take breaks together
5. Saturdays is our new family day.
If everything falls apart at the church on these days. So be it.
With the Church, my natural gifting thrives in the food ministry. However I’m called by God to shepherd the flock and make disciples. I have these rules that I’m trying to live by.
1. Staying out of the box truck
2. If everything goes wrong, I don’t have to be the hero. Stay out of the box truck.
3. If something happens that violates rule #1 or #2 were not doing it. Im staying out of the box truck.
I have realized that I do very well in a Crises. In fact, I tend to thrive in a crises and rise to a higher level (System 1). But it seems God has put limits on the Grace He has given me.
I spent a lot of time in system 2 in Cape town. Trying to find answers to questions. I realized I needed to ask myself the hard question.
What do I really want? Those were the hardest questions for me to really answer, to really be honest with myself.
I have partnered with more Foursquare churches in our area since coming back to Cape Town. It’s wonderful to join together as christians and not compete. I am starting to find friends with other Foursquare pastors. I also really enjoy a cup of tea and reflecting.
David, it is a different season and lifestyle for me. The church is moving from a church plant to a church. The ground has been tilled, a lot of rocks removed, seeds planted and started to grow. To steward the vineyard, Im about to have something I have never really had before.
Which is time. I am realizing something I really desire and appreciate it time. Time for God, time for people, time to be healthy.
To summarize everything I just said, I am trying to do less physically, so I can give more spiritually to people.
Bless you my friend.