Wrong Again
From Being Wrong by Kathryn Schulz and What’s Your Problem by Thomas Wedell-Wedellsborg to Kahneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow, I have been fully convinced that I, and everyone else is wrong. Already believing I was wrong made it seem pointless to read another book about being wrong. Wrong, again.
According to Bobby Duffy, understanding ‘why’ we are wrong matters because the reasons provide clues for how to be ‘right’. Drawing from his years as Global Director of the Ipsos Social Research Institute and spanning research on social issues across approximately 30 countries, Duffy makes it clear that we don’t know what we think we know about the problem facing society today. Our tendency to overestimate some dangers (e.g. threats from immigrants, the impact of teen pregnancy) and underestimate other very real personal danger (e.g. one’s actual obesity) mean we give energy and attention to false facts while ignoring helpful truth.
Our so-called ‘delusions’ are born both from within and from without. Duffy outlines that our wrongness is formed by faulty thinking plus what we are told.[1] Within these internal and external categories exist several subcategories of factors which form a spectrum of reasons for being wrong.[2] Some thinking errors are as simple as being bad at math, but the full picture of wrong-ness is never simple.
You would be wrong to think that understanding each of these reasons for wrong-ness could lead to right-ness. The wrong idea that different kinds of error are easily attributable to discrete reasons is an excellent example of our human desire to have simple answers and our need to place external blame.[3] For example, the common belief that media is to blame for political polarization is far too simplistic. Our delusions are formed by multiple forces interacting with one another creating a very high degree of complexity regarding causation.[4]
Just one example of how this happens is via ‘emotional innumeracy’, a term which describes that ‘cause’ and ‘effect’ each impact the other in situations of wrong-ness about the severity of social problems. There is a tendency to overestimate the prevalence of a problem because we worry about it, but we also tend to worry about issues which we overestimate.[5] A thinking feedback loop may then be further reinforced as the worrisome issues become increasingly notorious in media, social media, and political debate. Reinforcement via media and public discussion is its own kind of error called ‘confirmation bias’ which is especially powerful in the absence of any personal experience to the contrary.[6] From there, delusions initially formed by emotional responses may take hold of society and shape both social and political realities as also described by Kahneman as an ‘availability cascade.’[7]
Kahneman’s work also provide a cause for optimism despite it being nearly impossible to actually stop thinking ‘wrong.’ Deliberate deeper engagement with complex topics by engaging System 2 thinking can redirect our minds to more fruitful improvement pathways for challenges facing society. Slowing down gives us time to notice that social realities are not as bad as we think and to consider facts and alternative viewpoints. Slowing down also subverts emotional reactivity to the extreme positions expressed by outliers at both ends of any spectrum of opinion.[8] All of these strategies help to reorganize our delusions into a more accurate representation of reality.
“Feelings are real, but they are not always true” is personal motto to remind me about the thoughts/feelings/behavior triangle associated with Cognitive Behavioral Therapy.[9] The motto also seems to sum up the importance of accepting that we are wrong about nearly everything. Since thinking stimulates feeling which stimulates behavior, it is critical for leaders to engage a different way of thinking. Doing so requires that we make a deliberate responsive choice to slow down and apply intellectual tools to problems even when others around us are trapped in reactivity. I am interested in becoming better at noticing and naming my own cognitive distortions and biases in order to disrupt unhelpful feelings and behaviors before they take root. Discarding ‘all-or-nothing’ thinking when I am wrong is a start. Instead of thinking that being wrong means I am deficient, it means I am human. Now I want to practice giving the same grace to others.
[1] Bobby Duffy, Why We’re Wrong About Nearly Everything: A Theory of Human Misunderstanding, First US edition (New York: Basic Books, 2019), 20.
[2] Duffy, Why We’re Wrong About Nearly Everything, 224.
[3] See Edwin Friedman, A Failure of Nerve for discussion on blame displacement and the need for a quick fix.
[4] Duffy, Why We’re Wrong About Nearly Everything, 221.
[5] Duffy, 12.
[6] Duffy, 60.
[7] Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2013),143. Duffy makes frequent reference to Kahneman and his colleague, Amos Tversky’s research throughout Why We’re Wrong in reference to thinking errors.
[8] Duffy, Why We’re Wrong About Nearly Everything, 230 – 241.
[9] This website is a good overview about Cognitive Behavioral Therapy https://cogbtherapy.com/introduction-to-cbt
About the Author
Julie O'Hara
13 responses to “Wrong Again”
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Hi Julie, I hear you on this book. So much to learn and I nearly dismissed it. I like how you brought CBT into this discussion. I am learning the more tools the better able I will be to choose the right one for the right situation. Duffy obviously needed to use some common examples, but has your research on your NPO uncovered any areas where you might have had misconceptions?
Hi Diane,
Thank you for your question. My NPO is about the lack of consistently effective preaching in my denomination. I have been surprised that the NPO has been embraced by all to whom I have spoken about it, they agree. I have been gently moving forward not wanting to be hurtful by sounding critical of preachers or our institutions. It seems like more people agree than I had initially anticipated.
Hi Julie, thanks for your post. I felt the same way about this book. You wrote about the danger of giving in to emotion. You wrote, “Doing so requires that we make a deliberate responsive choice to slow down and apply intellectual tools to problems even when others around us are trapped in reactivity” I find that it’s so difficult to actually do this consistently. What strategies have you found to be helpful in the midst of the chaos, especially when the attack is directed against you?
Hi Graham, Every time someone asks a question like this I think, “WAIT, I’m still learning!” But at least I can answer as you say, with what has helped…
Regarding email – when I feel an emotional reaction I close it and come back to it later and read it slowly. So often the ‘sting’ I thought was present isn’t really there. I also ask a 3rd party to read my reply in potentially contentious situations if I think hot emotion is leaking out.
Another general strategy I try to use is to ‘up’ the relational aspect of a confrontation. What I mean is if I receive an email, I reply by phone. If I have an angry call, I will ask for video conference, etc.
Finally, sometimes I try to get a new set of emotions going by changing my thinking. When a reaction is so far out in left field relative to the situation, then you know they have been deeply triggered in an area of which they are probably not even aware. In prayer for the person I can acknowledge that the person or (even system) may be expressing reaction that does not correlate to what they say the problem is. In that case, no words from me will solve it, but I can listen with compassion and that may diffuse and prevent escalation. Thank you for question.
Hi Julie, I love that you brought in CBT. I, too, thought about this aspect of CBT when was reading the book. I appreciate your answers to Graham’s question. I want to remember to implement the “up the relational of a confrontation.” That is a great recommendation. What are strategies you are learning to implement when you are the one having the strong emotional response, especially in real-time confrontations?
Hi Kari, Thanks for your question. Now that is the real challenge! Reflecting on a couple of things in the last month, my best current strategy is to keep my mouth shut. Not speaking forces me to breathe and prevents escalation. In the case of the person who was being a total pill in purpose, we don’t have a personal relationship and nothing I would say will change the situation or him. I confess that the episode still burns, though. With someone I do love, my slow talking and thoughtful husband, I give space to get more information or to think of a helpful question instead of making a provoking retort. I believe this would be good strategy in work and friendship too.
Hi Julie, I really appreciated reading your post and found myself gleaning from your response to Graham as well. I had this same question as Kari so will be listening for your insights. That said, another question im curious about has to do with thee statement you made about your own action steps to work on this all. You shared
“Discarding ‘all-or-nothing’ thinking when I am wrong is a start. Instead of thinking that being wrong means I am deficient, it means I am human. Now I want to practice giving the same grace to others.” What normally gets in the way of you giving the same grace to others and have you found ways to bring this into coversation in your workplace? Since you mentiond your NPO hits on a critique of preaching, I thought it could be a helpful framing.
Hi Akwése, thank you for your questions, I was forced to think about my own reactions to other people. I believe there is a thinking error called black-and-white thinking related to all-or-nothing. I naturally tend towards being horribly judgmental. These ways of being exclude the cognitive possibility of being wrong. I will be a much better leader when I am focused more fully on the potential in people. My role should be to see the gifts, nurture the gifts, and teach others to do the same. This is an area of mindset growth for me to pay more attention to. Thank you.
Hi Julie,
Thanks for such a thorough discussion of Duffy’s book while weaving in the understandings of other authors. It made it a very impactful read for me.
How do you think emotional innumeracy helps in context to your NPO? And, how will you remind yourself to slow down in order to make sure you don’t get caught in the weeds of misperceptions?
Hi Nancy, Thank you for reading my blog. Regarding emotional innumeracy, it might that I am too concerned about the effectiveness of preaching in my denomination to the point that I have become highly critical on Sunday mornings. Then, through the filter of my critique I judge the sermons too harshly. Thanks for asking this question because it helps me see my critical spirit and I need to talk to Jesus about that.
I am struggling to answer the second question because…normally I thrive in System 1. I am bold and decisive and effective. However, my current life situation and the demands of this program have proven to be ‘too much’ and nothing is really working as I think it should. So a few weeks ago I started slowing down everything, including my thinking. It is really difficult because now I feel like I am so behind…(is this a form of emotional innumeracy?) Anyway, I am committed to attending to fully to what is in front of me right now but I am blind to the future. It is probably healthy, but I am SO uncomfortable. Reading this over, it may not make any sense to you, but replying was helpful to me, thank you.
Hi Julie, thank you for this great post. I appreciated the thoroughness of referencing various authors from other readings this semester. I resonate with your statements, “Discarding ‘all-or-nothing’ thinking when I am wrong is a start. Instead of thinking that being wrong means I am deficient, it means I am human.” I feel I am often navigating through this (sometimes I am more successful than other times). When you have those more ‘human’ moments, what practical things do you do to get out of those ‘I am deficient’ thoughts? I had to personally work through these sorts of emotions this week.
My dear friend, I am also deep in the sea of deficiency these days. You have just demonstrated my best idea which is to speak that lie “out loud” which I suppose “on a blog” is equivalent. That’s was my purpose by making the remark on my post. For all that spiritual practices help us become less anxious they must include practice within community. Today, I went forward to receive prayer in the same church I prayed for others for nine years. It felt good. One of the “good advice” bits from older cohorts at Oxford was to get a prayer team and keep them up-to-date. This is something I need to do, how about you? I’m glad to be walking this journey with you.
Julie, thank you for the reminder about the prayer team! This is something I haven’t put into place yet, but it would be a great benefit.