Understanding is everything: let your curiosity lead the way
In a world where we tend to be either overly suspicious or not suspicious enough of the research and statistics at the core of many of our beliefs, Tim Harford’s “The Data Detective: Ten Easy Rules to Make Sense of Statistics” offers a solution for how to find a healthy balance where we learn to filter what we hear through utilizing our mind, rather than simply our emotions. Hartford claims that a large part of the problem when it comes to making sense of statistics and using them as helpful tools for understanding is that we rely too heavily on emotions – bringing our fears into the mix and either blindly believing or dismissing data we hear, based off of the gut reactions it stirs, rather than pausing to think about if what we heard was true and if we value the truth. His book provides insight into how we interpret and use statistics to inform our positions on issues.
In an interview at the Rotman School of Management, Harford addresses valid concerns about statistics as a form of factual data while still making a case for us not to give up on them stating, “Statistics can be used to lie, just as words can be used to lie, but we wouldn’t say “ oh some people sometimes lie with words and therefore I’m never going to listen to anything anybody ever says…because I don’t want any of those nasty lies…this would be absurd.” [1]
I appreciate this example highlighting the “ absurdity” for it shows us how quick we as humans are to jump into full-fledged black-and-white thinking – completely writing things off and erasing any value add they may have. Yet when we apply the same sweeping generalizations to other things in our lives, like human relations in this example, we can more easily see the error of our generalized thinking. Hardford’s main argument is that statistical data is a reliable method of discerning facts and forming conclusions about human behavior and societal issues, however only if we are selective in how we look at and interpret the data we consume, because it is certainly not without bias. The key is in learning how to examine and apply statistical data to bring meaning to our lives and to understand the world around us better. [2]
When it comes to the statistics we’re digesting, a question we should all be asking ourselves is if we can trust ourselves to be able to figure out what is going on. Harford aims to help readers increase their self-trust by offering tools to easily assess statistics for themselves. I will explore this idea of building confidence and self-trust later.
First, let’s touch on a few of the many reasons why statistics cannot be trusted in today’s world. Despite being such an integral part of our everyday lives – from sports to business to politics – the reality is that they can still be false or misinterpreted. Statistics are often intentionally manipulated to cause misinterpretation by the average consumer, twisted in clever ways that push specific opinions and narratives [3]. From cherry-picking statistics to serve one’s needs, pulling small sample sizes to exaggerate impact, or even implying correlation as causation, all of these are things we must be aware of before we take statistical data at face value. While this highlights why we shouldn’t simply accept them, we should not simply reject them either. Both of these responses require little brain power.
When filtering data we need to examine variations present in the data such as proximity, population density, income, age, genetic makeup, height, and weight [4]. We also need to pay extra attention to the relative adjectives used – both in terms of how a study defines something as well as in understanding that respondents’ understandings may differ. Another thing to be aware of is the accuracy of a respondent’s data when being surveyed – were they fully honest?
Being exposed to the many ways statistical data can be deceptive and misleading is an interesting awakening because it highlights the danger of half-truths. Charles Seife, an American author and journalist, explores this idea in his book Proofiness: The Dark Arts of Mathematical Deception. Seife highlights the macro implications of this when he says that these manipulative tactics regarding how statistical data is presented can be used “to bring down beloved government officials and to appoint undeserving ones (both Democratic and Republican), to convict the innocent and acquit the guilty, to ruin our economy, and to fix the outcomes of future elections.”[5]
If the average consumer can be fed data with a sliver of truth, many will cling to that, believing whatever message is being pushed. With the large amount of statistical claims we’re presented with regularly, it can feel overwhelming and like a lot of work to have to think about and filter each one but in reality doing so doesn’t have to be so hard or overwhelming.
So let’s revisit how we build self-confidence in our ability to figure out and understand what’s going on.While Harford provides ten rules we can follow, he simplifies them into a “golden rule” focused on staying open and curious. If we remain curious, statistical data can open up the world in a whole new way for us. The BBC made a short video highlighting the “Three C’s” that help support a natural application of the ten rules: “Stay Calm, Get Context, Be Curious” [6].
Staying calm is about understanding the role our emotions play in decision-making. The Leadership Circle Profile, an assessment tool I’ve used in my work, invites growth and development by moving leaders from a place of reaction to a creative response. When we operate solely on a gut feeling – the emotions, thoughts, and beliefs it stirs – we’re more likely to navigate the world from a place of misalignment with our core values, than if we were to pause to discern a more creative response. To respond vs react is a powerful distinction because it implies intentionality of thought, followed by action. Thus highlighting how we aren’t truly using our brains when we react. Again, this begs the question “How could we truly trust ourselves to be able to understand and leverage statistics if we aren’t using our brains in much of our decision-making?”
If we can pause for a moment in the “calming” stage we can then exercise the brain power to “Get Context” by looking at some of the variables mentioned above and comprehensively reviewing research findings. We then build upon that by exploring the “curiosities” it births. To remain curious is about inviting a child-like wonder into your day-to-day life and using that to explore the world more deeply, asking questions of everything you engage in. Inquiry is vital to growth. The day we stop asking questions is the day our lives cease to have much value because we will have stopped thinking for ourselves in exchange for the easier route of blind acceptance.
So, what am I doing with all of this? I’m asking questions and getting curious as it relates to my research. Already this has begged me to re-examine how I’ve framed my research question and how I’ll interpret the findings from my literature reviews.
How are you staying curious when it comes to your research?
Footnotes
[1]Tim Harford, “The Data Detective: Tim Harford,” Youtube (Youtube, November 5, 2021), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmqi09ldF_E.
[2]Harford, Tim. Data Detective: Ten Easy Rules to Make Sense of Statistics. New York City, New York, US: Riverhead Books, 2022.
[3]Clarke, Geraint. “Why You Can’t Trust Statistics.” Medium, June 14, 2021. https://medium.com/one-minute-wonders/you-cant-blindly-trust-all-statistics-69c92348d31d.
[4]Arley. “Your Daily Science: Why You Can’t Always Trust Statistics.” Medium, July 10, 2023. https://medium.com/@ArleyWrites/your-daily-science-why-you-cant-always-trust-statistics-c4a4f666a902.
[5]Seife, Charles. Proofiness: The Dark Arts of Mathematical Deception. New York: Viking, 2011.
[6]BBC Ideas. “When Can You Trust Statistics? | BBC Ideas.” YouTube, June 17, 2021. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPh3E8IoHzk.
About the Author
Akwese
21 responses to “Understanding is everything: let your curiosity lead the way”
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Thanks for your post and for the Leadership Circle Profile link.
In regards to your question, I’m developing my own set of questions I’m asking books that I’m reading for my research on the concept and practice of Sabbath. This curiosity is helping me get to some of the core arguments and root paradigms that many of the books I’ve come across so far are operating in. Thanks for the encouragement to be curious.
How is it reframing your research?
Ryan, this is a brilliant idea! Will you please share more with me? I’d love to learn from your filtering, as that is something that may be helpful for me as well 🙂
For me? I’m still sitting with this question. So far what it’s bringing up is a whole boatload of questions regarding how Im framing my NPO, why and what I’m missing by focusing on oneperspective /framing over the other…
I’m not sure if that makes sense but earlier this week I was exploring funding for my research and realized that while it feels like something change making foundations are willing to support, it’s currently not framed in a way that would easily communicate that to a stranger. While I’m not a fan of “the funding game” I understand we must tweak things in order to meet the reuirements of grants but it’s just really got me going down a whole rabbit hole of probing questions. Anyway, I feel like I may have strayed from your initial question but in short, right now Im super curious about everything and eager for the curiosity to begin solidifying into a more tangible framing…
Akwèse!
I found myself reading your words, continually nodding my head. So much of what Hartford alludes to and states with frankness is that we can believe what we want to believe when it comes to the data and statistics, but, just as you said, we bring our own bias to the table.
And, so it does rely on our ability to remain open and continually question what is presented.
So … that begs the question: how do you know what to believe and what not to believe? I understand it will depend on context but beyond Harford’s rules and guidance, how do you remain curious? (BTW, I wrote that before reading your last line — 😜)
And, since you asked … I am an innately curious person, but in regards to my research, I find myself digging deeper into the sociological aspects of community and what makes them stick and what tears them apart.
How about you?
Yes, Nancy, this is the million dollar question right here!
I too am a naturally curious person, which is great however i often feel stuck by an outside sense of urgency to find answers rather than simply live the question, which is whatI find so many of these deeper inquiries invites me to do.
We will certinaly have to chat more about the sociological aspects of community and what makes them stick vs what tears them apart.
I’ve also been thinking a lot about wholeness and identity. My faith deeply informs how I orient to both of these so right now I’m taking a step back, asking how I’d tackle these things as someone without a strong faith rooting and then looking for the threads as well as missing pieces to what I’ve currently noted. I think this will be rally helpful in making something that speaks to the core human needs ( ie. a repsonse that can be applied to anything) but then adapted to go deeper by adding in / leveraging faith to help people anchor and align.
Hi Akwése, great post! I have found that this book is also impacting my NPO – especially forcing me to wrestle with confirmation bias and ‘search my feelings’.
Are you anticipating any changes to your NPO or ways in which you approach it?
Christy, yes confirmation bias has been coming up for me too. While I havent made any changes to my NPO just yet I think there will be. Honestly while I know we need the focus of the NPO to guide us I almost want to have three seperate framings that take different perspectives to exploring the deeper themes. I may end up doing this and then just use the other framings as a filter to help me stay curious throughout every stage of research??? Lots to think about and explore…
Akwése,
Great post and great reminder to think calm, get context and be curious. One thing I have learned is to ask more questions about myself and the situation at hand.
I have stayed curious in my research by asking questions from others and learning who I should include in my research. For instance, our group had a zoom interview with Dr. Percy and he highlighted the area of looking into black theology for me as one aspect that I was missing. Two weeks ago, I had reached out to one of the deans at Fuller about a book he read. He gladly accepted my invitation to a zoom meeting and he offered some other suggestions for my research. I have found that I have continued my interviews way beyond the three that we needed for last semester.
Adam, thank you for sharing. I LOVE how you’ve kept the discovery interviews going, what a powerful thing! Will you remind me, what’s your NPO and how are you currently framing your research question?
Hi Akwése, thank you for your post.
Your points about the deliberate distortion of statistics to serve specific agendas, I am in agreement with the book and you. The examples you provided, such as cherry-picking data or falsely implying causation, underscore the need for vigilance when assessing statistical information. Is this book beneficial to your NPO?
Shela, I feel this book was a good reminder to examine everything more critically and to be more intentional in how I frame my question, as well as collect and then interpret research findings.
Akwese,
Great Post, I though Harford was a great story teller in getting his points across. I listened to two lectures he gave in addition to reading the book. His stories beautifully display his concepts. One thing I teach my students is when they read a news headline that offers some kind of stat, try to find the original research and read it for yourself. Don’t believe at face value everything the media presents. Explore for yourself.
I listened to a podcast on my way home last night, I have an hour drive, and found some of my thoughts regarding my NPO being challenged. So to answer your question, I am trying to stay open minded and listen to other voices.
Jeff, thanks for your response. I love this for many reasons but ultimatly its a great reminder that we are all forever students and adopting that mindset of continued learning is key.
Hi Akwése!!
I am fascinated by what you wrote. One of the statements was, “Staying calm is about understanding the role our emotions play in decision-making.” mainly because I am always calm (I drive Nancy nuts sometimes). I don’t show many emotions, but calm is always around me. That being said, I SUCK at making decisions, so it =certainly isn’t the calm that is helping me 🙂
Are there certain types of decisions where being calm is more likely to lead to negative outcomes?
Ha! Chris, you bring up a great point!
Let me clarify my understanding of “being calm” becuase in this case I think it’s less about “calm” as a core emotion but more so about the general energy level of ones emotions.
So if we put that back in the context of statistics, think about a scenario where you hear something and it triggers intense emotions. This is when bringing the energy level to a more “calm” or let’s say “neutral” level is helpful to being objective and reflective.
I think the whole point here being that we don’t want to make decisions solely based on an intense feeling, since our feelings arent always true.
Bringing it back to you as someone who tends to naturally be a more “calm” or mellow guy, I guess I’d make it less about the state of calmness and orient it back to what ever you’re feeling underneath that calmness.
Are you familair with the feelings wheel? Something interesting to think about / explore are “masking emotions”. Sometimes one might remain more calm or “peaceful” on the surface but that doesnt mean that underneth they dont feel frustrated, isolated, happy, excited or sad.
In our families of origin it’s common for many to have not felt “safe” to express certain emotions. When that happens they default to “safer” emotions ( ie. masking emotions ) that were more acceptable. For example, in my home sadness was an emotion that was off limits to everyone but my mom so many times I would express anger when in reality I was hurt. Or my dad actually presents peace a lot but he still has many other emotions, they just don’t get the best of him phsyically like they sometimes do for me.
So as it relates to your question of “Are there certain types of decisions where being calm is more likely to lead to negative outcomes?” I’d want to know more about the specific context to give an answer since I’m not sure we’re actually talking about calm as nuetral.
That said, in general I think that when we can make decisions without the heat of emotions taking the lead, it’s more likley those decisions align with our values.
I used to use this video of Desmond Tutu in some of my workhshops where he was speaking about the anger many of feel towards injuictice in the world. There’s is a critque of changemakers — that w’re too mad and shouldn’t be yet Tutu say’s it’s not about being mad vs peaceful becuase “there are things that must demand our anger. It’s what we do with that anger that matters”. I butchered his words but it was along those lines, inviting us to see all emotions as gifts which requires an ability to pause and examine them so they we use them in constructive ways, otherwise they will have reign over us, which is where I think we see the “negtive outcomes” in decison making…
Anyway, those are my thoughts. Take what’s helpful, leave what’s not 😉
I am not gonna leave anything! It was all helpful. Thank you for your thoughts. When I was 3, my family had a terrible car accident, and my middle sister was killed. (I don’t remember her) but from then on, we were not allowed to show emotion or get yelled at. So yes, calm duck above the water and paddling like heck below. I hold things in and rarely talk about them. I know it’s unhealthy, but I am a work in progress. Thank you for giving me things to chew on. (BTW – I know the emotions wheel, thanks to my therapist!!)
Hi Akwese! Thank you for this. Truly insightful as we navigate the world of misinformation and manipulation. Regarding your question, I have a few index cards with questions on them, and I revisited the wording and the subject, much in line with Horford’s suggestion of asking the right questions. My question is in your research what statistic reaches out to you, causing you to ask additional questions?
Hi Daren, thanks for sharing! I love the idea o findex cards with notes on them. Right now I havent yet reached a point of statistics but I do feel as though the patterns I’ve been seeing are causing me to ask addiitonal questions. And to be honest, I feel like the questions they’re birthing and sending me into a spiral. I’m finding that this is where researching more theories is proving helpful.
Akwése, I was hoping you would address this book from your own experience and you did not disappoint! I’m very interested in hearing what specific results you have seen in your own leadership journey as you have applied the Leadership Circle Profile?
Aww thanks Kari! This is big question. In general I think the “results” I’ve seen have been greater fulfillment and peace in life.
What applying these things boils down to for me is values alignment. When I can show up authentically in every situation I find that even in situations where I might look back at a past decision and think ” if I knew then what I know now I would have done things differently” I ca say it without regret/ shame/ judgement becuase I know that when I did make that deciison, I made it in alignment with my values and the knowldge held in that moment.
Akwése,
How am I staying curious when it comes to my research? This weeks reading provoked me to not only be curious about the statistics I encounter but also my own feelings, thoughts, and bias in relation to those numbers. I suppose I have become more curious about myself in regards to the research. Reframing the research question is a great suggestion, thank you.
Thanks for sharing! This is certainly a beautiful journey of unfolding we’re on 😉