Some Things Just Work!
As I sat down to write this blog post on Shane Parrish’s New York Times Bestseller, Clear Thinking [1], I suddenly became quite fuzzy due to heavy ingestion of serious painkillers. I knew that many things were competing for my clarity of thought. I suddenly felt the urge to turn this ordinary moment into an extraordinary result.
I have always considered myself a clear thinker. It is only as I have aged that I have realized that to think of oneself as a clear thinker may be a prodrome to the reality that my thinking may not be as clear as I am giving myself credit for. It is with this confession that I initiate the writing of this blog.
Decision-making has been a big part of my adult life. I was first introduced formally to decision-making models in 1981 when I was commissioned into the United States Cavalry. I was adept at using the Military Decision-Making Process, which is one of the reasons that I was so interested in Shane Parrish’s book on decision-making. It dawned on me, “If it is not broken, don’t try to fix it.” This certainly pertains to the historical use of decision-making processes and, more specifically, to Shane Parrish.
The first documented use of what is now known as the Military Decision-Making Process (MDMP) was in 1779 during the Revolutionary War, specifically Friedrich Wilhelm Ludolf Gerhard Augustin Louis Freiherr von Steuben’s “Estimate of the Situation” for General Washington prior to the attack on Stony Point, NY.[2]
Below, I will list the 7 steps of Baron Von Steuben from the Military Decision-making Process as he designed it. Below, I will list Shane Parrish’s 7-step decision-making process. I will then compare them, demonstrating that there is little difference between the two.
The 7 steps of the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) are as follows:[3]
- Receipt of mission: Understand the task or mission assigned.
- Mission analysis: Gather information, analyze the situation, and identify potential courses of action.
- Course of action (COA) development: Develop possible courses of action based on the analysis.
- Course of action analysis (COA analysis): Evaluate each course of action to determine its advantages and disadvantages.
- Course of action comparison (COA comparison): Compare the advantages and disadvantages of each course of action to select the best one.
- Course of action approval: Obtain approval from higher authorities for the chosen course of action.
- Orders production: Prepare and issue orders to execute the chosen course of action.
Parrish’s Major steps to Decision-making. [4]
- Identify the decision – Realize that a decision needs to be made.
- Gather information – Collect relevant data and insights.
- Identify alternatives – Think of all possible options.
- Weigh the evidence – Evaluate each option’s pros and cons.
- Choose among alternatives – Pick the one that best aligns with your goals.
- Take action – Implement your decision.
- Review the decision – Reflect on the outcome and learn from it.
MDMP Parrish’s 7 Steps. Similarities
Receipt of Mission. Define the Problem. Both begin with understanding the problem
Mission Analysis. Clarify Objectives. Digging into purpose, constraints, and goals
COA Development. Listing All Options. Generating potential solutions or actions
COA Analysis Evaluate Consequences Assessing pros/cons and risks of options
COA Comparison. Make Tradeoffs. Comparing options based on effectiveness, cost, risk, etc.
COA Approval. Make a Decision. Choosing the best course
Orders Production. Communicate and Act. Formalizing and executing the decision.
As you can see, there are across-the-board relatively strong similarities between Von Steuben’s MDMP and Parrish’s 7 Steps. My point is not to disparage Parrish in any way, but to demonstrate that both the MDMP and the 7-Step process are such powerful decision models that little has changed over the past few hundred years in this practice from the battlefield to your personal life.
One of my takeaways from Parrish’s book is that it reinforces Daniel Kahneman’s concept of Fast versus Slow Thinking. Parrish describes what is often considered thinking as more like reacting without reasoning. He then goes on to describe the notion that intentional reasoning is a longer process and leads to clearer-minded results. Parrish ties the matter of clear thinking in connection with our life’s purposes and personal goals. “All the successful executions in the world are worthless if it is not in service of the right outcome.” [5]
Parrish brings everything together well at the end. He tells the reader, “Good decision-making comes down to two things: 1. Knowing how to get what you want and 2. Knowing what is worth wanting.”[6] He goes on to conclude by saying that the first point is about making effective decisions. The second is about making good ones. The difference between the two is significant.
References:
[1] Shane Parrish, Clear Thinking: Turning Ordinary Moments into Extraordinary Results(New York, NY: Portfolio/Penguin, 2023).
[2]. FM 101-5 Staff Organization and Operations (DA, 1997)
[3]. Combat Studies Institute, 7 steps of the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP), https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/FromOneLeadertoAnother.pdf
[4]. Shane Parrish, Clear Thinking: Turning Ordinary Moments into Extraordinary Results(New York, NY: Portfolio/Penguin, 2023).
[5] ibid, page 8
[6] ibid, page xi
About the Author
David Weston
3 responses to “Some Things Just Work!”
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Hi David,
As you have compared the decision-making models laid out in MDMP and by Parrish, what stands out to you as the underlying principle(s) behind them that unify and correlate?
David, thank you for your reflection and vulnerability (about painkillers). I really like how you compare historical and modern decision-making models. You mentioned in your post how aging has affected your thinking and thought process. How has that realization changed the way you make decisions now?
Great analysis, David. This is more evidence that there is nothing new under the sun.
I have no military experience. In project execution, there is a learning step that comes after your identified seven. That eighth step is part of continuous improvement where we can celebrate and disseminate success or investigate and correct failure, for example.
Is there a feedback loop or something similar in MDMP?