Some Things Just Work!
As I sat down to write this blog post on Shane Parrish’s New York Times Bestseller, Clear Thinking [1], I suddenly became quite fuzzy due to heavy ingestion of serious painkillers. I knew that many things were competing for my clarity of thought. I suddenly felt the urge to turn this ordinary moment into an extraordinary result.
I have always considered myself a clear thinker. It is only as I have aged that I have realized that to think of oneself as a clear thinker may be a prodrome to the reality that my thinking may not be as clear as I am giving myself credit for. It is with this confession that I initiate the writing of this blog.
Decision-making has been a big part of my adult life. I was first introduced formally to decision-making models in 1981 when I was commissioned into the United States Cavalry. I was adept at using the Military Decision-Making Process, which is one of the reasons that I was so interested in Shane Parrish’s book on decision-making. It dawned on me, “If it is not broken, don’t try to fix it.” This certainly pertains to the historical use of decision-making processes and, more specifically, to Shane Parrish.
The first documented use of what is now known as the Military Decision-Making Process (MDMP) was in 1779 during the Revolutionary War, specifically Friedrich Wilhelm Ludolf Gerhard Augustin Louis Freiherr von Steuben’s “Estimate of the Situation” for General Washington prior to the attack on Stony Point, NY.[2]
Below, I will list the 7 steps of Baron Von Steuben from the Military Decision-making Process as he designed it. Below, I will list Shane Parrish’s 7-step decision-making process. I will then compare them, demonstrating that there is little difference between the two.
The 7 steps of the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) are as follows:[3]
- Receipt of mission: Understand the task or mission assigned.
- Mission analysis: Gather information, analyze the situation, and identify potential courses of action.
- Course of action (COA) development: Develop possible courses of action based on the analysis.
- Course of action analysis (COA analysis): Evaluate each course of action to determine its advantages and disadvantages.
- Course of action comparison (COA comparison): Compare the advantages and disadvantages of each course of action to select the best one.
- Course of action approval: Obtain approval from higher authorities for the chosen course of action.
- Orders production: Prepare and issue orders to execute the chosen course of action.
Parrish’s Major steps to Decision-making. [4]
- Identify the decision – Realize that a decision needs to be made.
- Gather information – Collect relevant data and insights.
- Identify alternatives – Think of all possible options.
- Weigh the evidence – Evaluate each option’s pros and cons.
- Choose among alternatives – Pick the one that best aligns with your goals.
- Take action – Implement your decision.
- Review the decision – Reflect on the outcome and learn from it.
MDMP Parrish’s 7 Steps. Similarities
Receipt of Mission. Define the Problem. Both begin with understanding the problem
Mission Analysis. Clarify Objectives. Digging into purpose, constraints, and goals
COA Development. Listing All Options. Generating potential solutions or actions
COA Analysis Evaluate Consequences Assessing pros/cons and risks of options
COA Comparison. Make Tradeoffs. Comparing options based on effectiveness, cost, risk, etc.
COA Approval. Make a Decision. Choosing the best course
Orders Production. Communicate and Act. Formalizing and executing the decision.
As you can see, there are across-the-board relatively strong similarities between Von Steuben’s MDMP and Parrish’s 7 Steps. My point is not to disparage Parrish in any way, but to demonstrate that both the MDMP and the 7-Step process are such powerful decision models that little has changed over the past few hundred years in this practice from the battlefield to your personal life.
One of my takeaways from Parrish’s book is that it reinforces Daniel Kahneman’s concept of Fast versus Slow Thinking. Parrish describes what is often considered thinking as more like reacting without reasoning. He then goes on to describe the notion that intentional reasoning is a longer process and leads to clearer-minded results. Parrish ties the matter of clear thinking in connection with our life’s purposes and personal goals. “All the successful executions in the world are worthless if it is not in service of the right outcome.” [5]
Parrish brings everything together well at the end. He tells the reader, “Good decision-making comes down to two things: 1. Knowing how to get what you want and 2. Knowing what is worth wanting.”[6] He goes on to conclude by saying that the first point is about making effective decisions. The second is about making good ones. The difference between the two is significant.
References:
[1] Shane Parrish, Clear Thinking: Turning Ordinary Moments into Extraordinary Results(New York, NY: Portfolio/Penguin, 2023).
[2]. FM 101-5 Staff Organization and Operations (DA, 1997)
[3]. Combat Studies Institute, 7 steps of the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP), https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/FromOneLeadertoAnother.pdf
[4]. Shane Parrish, Clear Thinking: Turning Ordinary Moments into Extraordinary Results(New York, NY: Portfolio/Penguin, 2023).
[5] ibid, page 8
[6] ibid, page xi
About the Author
David Weston
13 responses to “Some Things Just Work!”
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Hi David,
As you have compared the decision-making models laid out in MDMP and by Parrish, what stands out to you as the underlying principle(s) behind them that unify and correlate?
Rich, there is definitely a feedback loop in the MDMP process. In fact, the whole process is one giant circle that constantly builds on its successes and failures. There is an old proverb which says, “Fail to plan, plan to fail.” In military decision-making, I would add that the more meticulous you plan, the more likely you are to succeed. After 30 years in the military, there is only one quote that would supersede that quote for me. “Beware of an old man in a profession where men usually die young.” I am admitting today that, in the end, what leads to success on the modern battlefield is one’s ability to make well-thought-through or “slow” decisions in an incredibly fast-paced combat environment. In effect, the best feedback loop is done by the one who remains standing at the end of the day.
Joff, your comment reflects precisely what Rich posited about a feedback loop. I wrote a pretty cool response to Rich, but now that you have caused me to think harder, there may be a more accurate response. By the way, since I come from the generation that practically defined cool, it tends to be a starting point for me.
The MDMP is not a rigid, linear process—it’s meant to be dynamic. Feedback and iteration are essential features, especially in a changing or uncertain operational environment. I can assure you that rapid changes in the modern operational combat environment are lightning fast.
I am not saying that the rest of the world doesn’t change quickly. What I am saying, is that few of the other occupational environments result in immediate death to those who choose wrong. That is the ultimate feedback loop. When you are laying, freezing in a pool of mud and you are consciously aware of your last breath leaving your body. You instantly know that you made the wrong decision. Ok, I am sorry. I just went really dark, very quickly.
Feedback loops – you are talking my language. They are a powerful concept when integrated with some of the ideas we have been reviewing this year. It’s my opinion that they *are* the learning process.
Thanks for the reply, David!
David, thank you for your reflection and vulnerability (about painkillers). I really like how you compare historical and modern decision-making models. You mentioned in your post how aging has affected your thinking and thought process. How has that realization changed the way you make decisions now?
Ivan, Great question, by the way. How has maturing caused me to think differently about decision-making now? I am in a different season of life. I no longer jump out of airplanes 1000 km deep into hostile or potentially hostile environments. That kind of environment lends itself to quick decisions. I don’t think I put the commensurate time I should have into my decision-making. As I have gotten older, I have become very meticulous in my planning, looking at the Courses of Action in much more detail. I have learned to do a much better job of taking second and third-order effects into consideration. Advanced military decision-making is a lot like three-dimensional Chess. If you don’t look at the complexities of your decisions with in-depth detail, you will lose again and again to those who do.
Great analysis, David. This is more evidence that there is nothing new under the sun.
I have no military experience. In project execution, there is a learning step that comes after your identified seven. That eighth step is part of continuous improvement where we can celebrate and disseminate success or investigate and correct failure, for example.
Is there a feedback loop or something similar in MDMP?
David,
Two former officers arrive at the same space and conversation. Except that mine wasn’t drug-induced.
I drew the same conclusions from the book’s second part: mission/Intelligence, risks, constraints, COA, best COA, refined COA, mission execution, and then recap (or AAR). This still holds true today. I have used this countless times in my leadership roles.
Exploring Parrish’s book further, what do you envision as your most significant default that you are wrestling with on an ongoing basis? I had to camp with his thoughts and unpack them further.
David,
I am sorry to hear that you are still working through pain challenges. Praying that you will see a breakthrough soon.
You mentioned in your post that your ‘clear thinking’ may not have been as clear as you thought it was. Can you expand a little more on that?
Darren, Thanks for your comment. You asked, “You mentioned in your post that your ‘clear thinking’ may not have been as clear as you thought it was. Can you expand a little more on that?”
I believe that as I have gotten older, I have learned that clear thinking begins internally and then spreads outward. As I have gained a deeper understanding of how I think, I have learned that being honest with myself must always be the starting point of my thinking. If I do not start with a deep introspection and an unencumbered collection of knowledge and data, consummated with an honest analysis of that knowledge and data, then all I have done is become an editorial writer, not a decision-maker of the highest class. If I take my approach to its logical conclusion, then what I am really saying is that to be a great leader, one must be a broker of minimally biased truth in their hearts and decisions pour forth as a means to care for your followers and the competence to accomplish the mission.
David,
Thanks for the additional insight. I like how you brought ‘introspection’ and ‘honesty’ to the table in your answer. I have found it helpful to start my day a little earlier than my staff to allow time for that introspection. However, the realization of the effects of bias thinking has me wondering how ‘honest’ that time really is.
David,
Thank you for sharing such a thoughtful and grounded reflection, especially while under the haze of painkillers! Your honesty, humility, and sense of humor come through so clearly.
I love how you draw the connection between historic military decision-making practices and Parrish’s more modern framework, it’s a great reminder that wisdom often stands the test of time.
Your takeaway about the importance of “knowing what is worth wanting” really hit home. That kind of clarity not only informs better decisions but also helps align our lives with what truly matters.
You’ve clearly lived and led through many high-stakes situations. How has your understanding of “what’s worth wanting” evolved over the years, especially in times of personal challenge or change?
Linda, about 25 years ago, I remember going through a transitional period in my thinking about the purpose of my life. I thought a lot about this when I turned 40. At that juncture of my life, I was reminded that if you ask the wrong questions, you will always get the wrong answers. I was convinced that I had spent a lot of my life asking the wrong questions. The question I pondered a lot was “What is MY purpose?” I concluded that this was a very David-centered question and that God wanted more for me. The question that changed me that day was when I learned that a better question was, “Who/What am I placed on earth to care for?”
I discovered that God was far more interested in me aligning my life and heart to those he placed me with. The scriptures are replete with examples. I won’t go into it here, but from the Garden to the Cross we seek example after example of God calling us to care for others rather than just to fulfill a mission. Now that is what’s worth wanting!