Beyond the Numbers
We live and lead in an information-driven society. Data, details and diagnostics are at our fingertips 24 hours a day. There are many benefits to living in the information age, but there are also many problems. A primary issue being that all information is not created equal. Cousins and authors, Tom and David Chivers, explore this concept of data reliability in their 2021 book How to Read Numbers. Written for your average information consumer, this book defines basic statistical terms and winsomely provides examples of how numbers reported in the press can often mislead readers. This book is not a hand slap on the media as much as it is a wake-up call for consumers to understand the limits of which data should inform our perspectives and decisions. [1]
Chivers and Chivers adequately prove that a healthy level of skepticism is warranted when it comes to relying on data presented in the media. They do this through a review of twenty principles that relate to statistical reliability. The remainder of this essay discusses several of these principles through the lens of a research challenge that my family has recently undertaken – identifying potential colleges for my daughter, Audrey (a high school senior). What began as an exciting step toward Audrey’s future, quickly became muddled by all kinds of numbers that impacted her momentous decision.
A Look at Numbers Involved in Selecting and Applying to a University and How They Impact a Student’s Decision
Where do you want to go to college? That’s the first question anyone asks when I introduce Audrey as a high school senior. Over the past year, her top answer has not waivered – University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. One of the “public Ivies” of the U.S., UNC found its way into Audrey’s dreams. The problem? UNC is highly competitive for out-of-state students, accepting only 8.2% of non-state applicants. And we live in Missouri.
Now, I know that Audrey is a gifted, high-achieving student. Unfortunately, that 8.2% statistic has her convinced that her dream is in peril. Over the past 6 months, I’ve had to reassure her many times that numbers can be misleading and that she truly does have a chance of becoming a Tar Heel on decision day 2023. I wish I had read How Read Numbers previously, so I could have sounded much more scholarly when explaining the real scoop behind these numbers that are keeping her up at night as she contemplates her future.
ACT Scores
Every school posts the average ACT/SAT scores of their students. These numbers put fear in the heart of high school students everywhere when they sit down to take the dreaded college entrance exams. As Chivers and Chivers explain, averages can be misinterpreted without additional data such as the median and the mode. [2] Additionally, test scores are just one of many factors that college admissions consider.
GPA
A student’s grade point average is another important number for college applications, however one quickly realizes that all GPAs are not calculated with the same components. For example, AP classes are weighted, so an A is actually worth 5 point instead of 4. Students who take many AP classes can earn a GPA well over a 4.0, skewing the scale.
Acceptance Rates
The lower the acceptance rate, the lower the chance a student has of being accepted. But not all schools have the same amount of students applying. So a lesser-known school can have a higher acceptance rate not because it’s not a good school, but simply because fewer students apply. I tried (in vain) to convince Audrey that a school with a higher acceptance rate could still be an excellent option.
National Rankings
And finally, we have the highly reported and capitalized on college rankings. It seems every major newspaper or magazine has their own rankings based on a myriad of criteria. Colleges latch onto these rankings for advertisements forevermore. After reading through dozens of college web sites, I can hardly think of one that didn’t claim some sort of prestigious ranking from one source or another. Of course, we don’t know how many colleges were considered for each ranking, how many people were in the sample size for questionnaires, how those questionnaires were worded or who made the ultimate decisions for the rankings. All of which are cause for pause!
In the end, Audrey did apply to UNC and we will find out on January 31, 2023 whether she is accepted. It’s been quite a year of deliberation and honestly, most of her decisions eventually were based on more qualitative factors rather than quantitative data. Lesson learned: Numbers are a good starting point for selecting a college, but college visits, campus vibe, connection of students and other more subjective qualities are just, if not more, important.
[1] Chivers, Tom, and David Chivers. 2022. How to Read Numbers. Weidenfeld & Nicolson.
[2] Ibid, 9
About the Author
Laura Fleetwood
Laura Fleetwood is a Christian creative, certified Enneagram Coach, doctoral student at Portland Seminary and Creative Director at her home church, Messiah St. Charles. As a published author, national faith speaker, podcaster and self-described anxiety warrior, Laura uses storytelling to teach you how to seek the S T I L L in the midst of your chaotic life. Find Laura at www.seekingthestill.com2 responses to “Beyond the Numbers”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Hi Laura, what a great practical application to the concepts in the book. College applications are quite the undertaking. My daughter was wait-listed for her first choice college, but she eventually got in and is now in her junior year as a University of California Santa Cruz Banana Slug. I remember talking to friends about the amount colleges make in admission applications. When you consider the number of applicants verses those accepted and the cost of each application, it seems like some colleges make out like bandits.
You mentioned that you wish you had read this book earlier in the process of college applications with your daughter. How might you have approached things differently or what might you have said differently in light of this book?
Laura,
I enjoyed reading your post and how it applies to you specifically. In your post, you said “This book is not a hand slap on the media as much as it is a wake-up call for consumers to understand the limits of which data should inform our perspectives and decisions.” Can you give a little more about this? In what ways has the book helped you to understand the limits of which data should inform your perspective and decision in your daily life?