How can we know anything?
“The more you see, the less you know. The less you find out as you go. I knew much more then, than I do now.” These opening lyrics to U2’s City of Blinding Lights constantly ran through my mind as I read Tom and David Chivers’ How to Read Numbers.[1] Countless articles, statistics, and “facts” based on numbers have entered my brain throughout my life. In reading this book, my eyes were opened to how numbers can be manipulated in order to communicate an idea, regardless of whether the idea is based on facts or not. How many articles have I believed that were released into the world by a researcher whose aim was more to get published than to execute thorough research communicated in an accurate way? Unfortunately, the platform of the media has incentivized scientists to make their research “click-worthy” in order to attract attention.[2] How many clicks one gets is the marker of success, not fidelity to honest research.
In this post, I will highlight an article that communicated information to the audience that may not be worth following. After that, I will close with a question and an invitation in how to think and lead well in a world where it seems “the more you see, the less you know.”
A Surprising Secret to Longevity
What does it take to live to be 101 years old? Well, according to a Fox News article that interviewed a woman named Mary Flip, the secret is “tequila.”[3] Well, I can do that! Forget regular exercise and a plant-based diet! This is the secret.
Unfortunately, it is not that easy, or fun. A deceptively written title may be effective in attracting attention (it certainly got mine!). But it is no more helpful of a source in guiding its audience towards becoming centenarians any more than business advice from Kim Kardashian can guarantee entrepreneurial success in a lean start-up.
One of the many ways this article goes wrong is survivorship bias.[4] This article would be far more credible if it took into account many people who drank tequila and observed how many of them lived to be over 100. But it does not. In order to attract an audience, a woman who is 101 years old happens to attribute her long life to tequila is highlighted as evidence of tequila as the secret of longevity. Could tequila be a factor in living a long life? Though doubtful, I will give this statistic that you can trust: when David drinks tequila, there is a 100% chance of a good time happening. So, let’s raise a glass of tequila, not for the sake of longevity, but in celebration of the gift of life.
A Question
While reading How to Read Numbers I wrote down this question: How can we know anything? This book disturbed me. I discovered that I am too trusting of data I come across. Now, the trick is to not disbelieve everything I read. Though there is much information out there to disregard, there is also a great deal of useful information that helps us live wisely in the world. Maybe I know less than I think. Fortunately, through reading How to Read Numbers, I have collected more critical thinking tools to aid me in filtering what is to pay attention to and what is baseless, attention-grabbing clickbait.
An Invitation
What does this mean for us as leaders in an information-saturated, ever-changing world? How do we lead with wisdom when there is an abundance of skewed numbers communicating misinformation right in our pockets?
The teacher in the Old Testament wisdom book, Ecclesiastes, has a regular refrain “There is nothing new under the sun.” My contention is this: as leaders in a world that rapidly discharges both credible and false information, we need a humble, critically-thinking posture that is not swayed by novel clickbait.
[1] Tom Chivers and David Chivers, How to Read Numbers: A Guide to Statistics in the News (W&N, 2022).
[2] Ibid. 110.
[3] Sarah Rumpf, “Woman Celebrating 101st Birthday Says Tequila Is the Secret to a Happy Life,” Text.Article, Fox News (Fox News, November 9, 2022), https://www.foxnews.com/lifestyle/woman-celebrating-birthday-tequila-secret-happy-life.
[4] Chivers and Chivers, How to Read Numbers, 142-147.
About the Author
David Beavis
David is Australian by birth, was raised in Southern California, and is the Youth and Young Adults Pastor at B4 Church in Beaverton, Oregon. David and his wife, Laura, live in Hillsboro with their dog, Coava (named after their favorite coffee shop). M.A. Theology - Talbot School of Theology B.A. Psychology - Vanguard University of Southern California11 responses to “How can we know anything?”
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Hi David,
Like you, I kept thinking, “can I trust anything?” Of course, we know that statistics are used to support all kind of arguments – often competing ideas.
How do you use statistics when you are teaching or preaching?
Hey Chad,
Great question! I actually rarely use statistics when preaching. Not that I’m opposed to statistics (though, after reading this book, I am a little more cautious of them), but I just can’t think of a time recently when I have used them. How about for you in your preaching?
David,
You have me singing, Tequila! in my head!
I agree with your conclusion on the book:
“Fortunately, through reading How to Read Numbers, I have collected more critical thinking tools to aid me in filtering what is to pay attention to and what is baseless, attention-grabbing clickbait.” The next time I run into some statistical data that might be questionable, I want to run to this book and have a better evaluation of the data I am looking at!
I like the questions you pose to leaders. Humility and critical thinking are two attributes that will aide leaders well. I agree with your conclusion and fitting verse from Ecclesiastes.
David,
What a well-written, and nicely laid out, post. Your example of the woman that attributed her long-life to tequila was perfect. The best part of your post was the conclusion I think. We need “a humble, critically-thinking posture that is not swayed by novel clickbait”. Thank you!
David,
Because you are one of my favorite writers I would love for you to write a piece called “Clickbait: How to use critical thinking skills without tequila!” Just kidding.
However, I do think you are on to something. I would love a David based discussion on this matter in the form of a book in your free time.
If you were to write a book- How do you think that we can use statistics to live and react wisely?
Challenge accepted! HAHA! Maybe I’ll come out of this program with not just a degree but a book. But I’m not sure if I have enough free time to do that well. One day!
Alana!
She is always up to putting out the challenge!!
I am eager to hear how you will respond to this one, David!!
Hi David, thanks for sharing; education is undoubtedly eye-opening! I have learned so much as we go through these books, and will not be falling for any of the “novel click baits” you mentioned.
David, has your NPO been informed by any statistics? You’ve probably seen this question somewhere before!
Hey Jean de Dieu,
The numbers that run through my head have to do with the wide gap between the great number of pastors retiring, and the much lower number of young pastors stepping in to leading churches. This is what sparked my NPO journey. I want to help shrink the gap.
David,
Well written as so many have already stated and very thought provoking.
One thing I am constantly reminded of is that we are in a time of mass disinformation – bombarding us 24/7. We cannot rely on anything that can be seen. The passage in Ecclesiastes is one of my favorites.
It helps me to ground myself in God’s wisdom.
Then I turn to “We can say with confidence and a clear conscience that we have lived with a God-given holiness[a] and sincerity in all our dealings. We have depended on God’s grace, not on our own human wisdom. That is how we have conducted ourselves before the world, and especially toward you. Our letters have been straightforward, and there is nothing written between the lines and nothing you can’t understand. I hope someday you will fully understand us,” 2 Corin. 1:12-13 NLT
When we find that we have missed it as a leader – humbly acknowledge the error, repent and know that God will redeem.
What do you think the people during Solomon’s day experienced that might be compared to the mass misinformation we are experiencing today?
Hello Audrey,
Oh that is a fascinating question! I have no idea, but I wonder is prophets and religious leaders who encouraged complacency instead of faithful observance of the laws of YHWH, as we see in Jeremiah 6:13-14:
13“From the least to the greatest,
all are greedy for gain;
prophets and priests alike,
all practice deceit.
14They dress the wound of my people
as though it were not serious.
‘Peace, peace,’ they say,
when there is no peace.
I imagine this would have been common in Solomon’s day too, but I could be wrong. What a fun question to ponder! Thanks Audrey!