I was Wrong about this one
I bristled when I started reading Why We’re Wrong About Nearly Everything by Bobby Duffy this week. After reading the first several chapters, my reaction was that it was just another book confirming what we already read, things aren’t always what they seem. I thought his reference to Kahneman’s book, Thinking, Fast and Slow was too superficial.[1] In addition, Duffy’s example of Solomon Asch’s line experiment[2] was also in Tim Harford’s book.[3] I was not expecting anything new to come from the current reading. However, the more I read, the more I realized my opinion was a rush judgement and that it was my personal bias talking based not on his thesis of his book but in the examples, he chose to explain his research: danger, sex, food, money, safety, and politics. Those were tools to make his points. Yet, these are, also, topics that stir strong emotions.
Ultimately, I learned that as a public policy professor and researcher, Duffy was well positioned to give a new perspective on the why people think the way they do about those topics. He offered two main classifications: How we think and what we are told.[4] I want to focus on what we are told. Today it is easy to blame social media or political rhetoric as the cause of discord. They may play a part. But there is more to it. Sometimes we are told things as children or young adults that are internalized, making it hard to believe otherwise. When I was in high school and thinking about college, the guidance counselor told me he did not think I was college material so he would not spend any time helping me consider colleges. Although I was in the top 10 percent of a class of 1000 and got high marks, my SAT scores were borderline. Thankfully, I had a chemistry teacher who invited me to join him and three other students on a school visit. I ultimately attended that school. As a young person to be the first in my family to go away to college, if the words of the guidance counselor were the only voice I heard, my education would have taken a different trajectory. When Duffy talked about confirmation bias where we look for things that confirm what we already believe, I wonder what would have happened if the voice of the school guidance counselor was the only voice I had heard. Duffy’s theory is that what we are told impacts how we approach different topics. We listen for facts that confirm what we already believe, called confirmation bias.[5]
Duffy points out that there are other reasons that cause inaccurate thinking. He says that misconceptions or delusions can be caused by faulty knowledge, relying on fast thinking, or missing how our emotions shape what think. We think that things we find impressive must be true. No, the Great Wall of China cannot be seen from outer space.[6]
Another area that causes people to make poor decisions is pluralistic ignorance. This stems from someone having a wrong idea about how another person or group might think about a given topic. That wrong view might prompt a person to make a wrong decision they do not even like based on the perception of how peers might react. Duffy used Princeton University drinking habits as an example. Drinking had become excessive to the point that the school decided that beer kegs would not be permitted at parties. When independently interviewed, many student responded that they drank because they thought others enjoyed it and they wanted to conform to avoid alienation. Interestingly, the wrong information was held by multiple students all sharing a fear.[7] I think pluralistic ignorance can lead to herding. Duffy talked about herding instinct when he explained the impact peer pressure had on the Asch experiment where subjects were asked to answer a question but during the process, actors would enter the area and pretend to select wrong answers. Even when the test subject appeared to not think the actors chose the correct answer, the subject selected the answer that corresponded to the one chosen by the actors approximately 33% of the time. The reason for this herding instinct is that long ago, survival was dependent on staying within the protection of the herd.[8] We still do it today.
All three authors Duffy, Harford and Kahneman give examples of next steps that are useful. Harford has a whole book with strategies from being curious, ensuring transparency, to keeping an open mind.[9] Kahneman taught about our fast and slow ways of thinking.[10] However, the section that impacted me most were the examples Duffy used that can be replicated in different settings, especially the communication campaign for This Girl Can, to encourage physical activity for women and girls that Sport England created. The campaign focused on positivity using personal stories and visuals of real people participating is something that looked fun. People caught the energy and wanted to be part of it. Even just reading about it, I could imagine the excitement of seeing girls having fun on a soccer pitch or groups of women walking a track with friends. The campaign was successful for many reasons but importantly, people caught the energy and positivity[11]
This example gives me hope that civilizations do not have to be doomed to fiery speeches and demonization. People can change their thoughts and perceptions if we take an approach that creates a desire to be a part of something good. If it can work with physical activity, I believe more is possible.
[1] Bobby Duffy, Why We’re Wrong About Nearly Everything, A Theory of Human Misunderstanding, (New York: Hachette Book Group, 2018), 4.
[2] Duffy, 33.
[3] Tim Harford, How to Make the World Add Up, (Great Britain: Bridge Street Press, 2021), 144.
[4] Duffy, 9.
[5] Duffy, 60.
[6] Duffy, 4.
[7] Duffy, 66-67.
[8] Duffy, 32-33.
[9] Harford.
[10] Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, (New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2011), 13.
[11] Duffy, 64-65.
About the Author
Diane Tuttle
12 responses to “I was Wrong about this one”
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Hi Diane,
Thank you for your post.
Reflecting on your own experiences, have you ever encountered conflicting voices like the guidance counselor and chemistry teacher? How did they impact your choices?
Hi Shela, Thanks for reading the post. I am not sure if I was clear but the guidance counselor and the chemistry teacher were mine. If you are asking if in my professional life I have excountered differing opinions, but on thinking of it, I have. What I did was to consciously decide not to listen to the naysayer but to listen to the voices that were more in line with the mission of the work we are doing. At times people disagreeing is needed. There is a difference between disagreeing without all the facts and offering constructive feedback. I welcome the feedback even if it means I need to change some things.
Thanks Diane for your post and your personal story. I, too, felt excited about the girls sports story. If you had unlimited resources to create a campaign, what story would you tell? Who is your audience?
Julie
Hi Julie, Your questions is good. I am not sure I can completely answer it here but it is surely something to think about. My initial thoughts are that I would want a campaign that speaks to neighborhood communities who don’t want someone living with a developmental difference living next to them. I would have a lot of footage of folks going about their daily lives doing many of the same things most people do. With money flowing freely, it really could be a campaign with commercials interjected with people who might use wheelchairs, or someone living with down syndrome. Interspersed in typical settings people would become used to seeing everyone there and the differences would not seem different but just a normal part of our world. Thanks for asking. It was fun to dream for a moment.
Diane,
You bring up such an important theme of making a rush judgement based on what you thought you knew. And, I appreciate your nod to how much we believe because of what we are told, especially with regards to pluralistic ignorance, because that’s a hot topic that seems to have gone on far too long, especially in the US.
How does that impact your NPO? How will you remain curious, open, and flexible as you move forward?
Hi Nancy, Thanks for the question. I think there were other things in play. Interestingly, I recall that the chemistry teacher found out from another student that I was tutoring him before tests. He would get an A and I a B on those tests. I really just didn’t test well in high school. The point is, he believed in me and that was stronger than the one who didn’t. However, even though I went there, I remember my freshman year when I got my first A on a midterm I went skipping, literally, back to my dorm thinking I AM college material. Anyway, as far as my NPO, I think everything we are doing this semester confirms that remaining open minded, curious and flexible is best practice and when considering leadership transition, a must.
Diane,
what a terrible story about your counselor. I am sure you have wondered where you would be had you listened to him.
How did you avoid confirmation bias, even after seeing the other campus with your teacher and overcome the fear?
Hi Chris, I probably should have written to you and Nancy together because my answer to her is pretty similar to what I would say to your first question. However, just writing it a few minutes ago I can hone it to say that having someone to believe in me was stronger than someone who didn’t. On your second thought, I don’t know that the first person brought fear but surely rejection and disappointment. Thanks for asking.
Thanks for sharing your story Diane. I loved when you said “the more I read, the more I realized my opinion was a rush judgement and that it was my personal bias talking based not on his thesis of his book but in the examples, he chose to explain his research: danger, sex, food, money, safety, and politics. Those were tools to make his points. Yet, these are, also, topics that stir strong emotions.” Has the experince with this book uncovered other things you may have written off due to rush judgement and personal bias and if so, what are some strtagies for 1) noticing this and 2) combating it?
Hi Akwese, thanks for the question. No specific examples come to mind. However, with a heightened awareness I hope that should sometime arise that triggers a strong emotion I will have the wisdom to question it in terms of a number of things we have been learning this semester.
Diane, my hackles raised when I read about what your high school guidance counselor told you. I was a school library teacher for a number of years, the last 6 in a district with a number of immigrants from Brazil. In many cases, there was no one in the family who had gone to college. I remember one girl who was smart and interested in many things. Her parents didn’t want her to go to college… so she didn’t. And she definitely could have. But she didn’t have any voices in her life to encourage her. My assistant and I tried… but we didn’t hold enough sway.
How we think is important, yes. And so it what we’re told. Thank you for not listening to that counselor.
Hi Debbie, Thanks for reading and your comments.