Beyond the Numbers
In 2017, my husband began having pain while running. The doctors dismissed it but as it continued to get worse, tests were taken and concluded that Keith had bladder cancer. Within minutes our family was googling bladder cancer and every statistic possible to inform us of what might be our future. We breathed a sigh of relief that the odds were in his favor and that it was caught early. Looking back, I see how very gullible we all are with so much immediate information at our fingertips. There was no strategic way we viewed the statistics. We simply clicked on whichever well-known medical link would come to view on our devices.
Chivers & Chivers pointedly asks “How do we normally decide whether something is true or not?” and then answers “we check ourselves, or we listen to other people who have checked.”[1] However, how HAVE the other people checked? The book unpacks this for the common person in a way that makes it digestible. There are so many areas to consider when understanding statistics. Who knew??? Sample sizes, biased samples, effect size, causality, etc… my head is swimming. Furthermore, society eggs on sensationalism. The media should not be the source of our numbers since they are not usually skilled in this area[2]. Furthermore, the growing problem of individual researchers looking to further their own scientific careers creates the temptation to publish what draws readers in for viewership.[3] Garry Gray, in his Tedx Talk on “Trust in Research, the Ethics of Knowledge Production”, warns that it is also important to know who is funding the research and to beware of biases associated with a conflict of interest in funding bases.[4] Scientific integrity can often be left on the wayside and many reasons abound as to why the data we often trust may not be even closely accurate.
Does this matter to you? Well, yes, it matters to all of us. No matter what field you are in, data is necessary for moving forward strategically. Businesses, non-profits, and medical agencies all benefit from the numbers associated with what has been true in the past, what is now true in the present, and what data helps project the future. The church is no different. Every pastor today is concerned with the church in decline. We are reading constant stats regarding discipleship, church attendance, emotional health, etc., and trying to think strategically for the future.
One takeaway was the advice to look for the background of the data. What was the sample size? When was it taken? Is it an accurate representation of what it is trying to prove? Just this information warranted the reading of the book, though all the examples used throughout caused enough doubt for my own interest in further understanding statistics.
I decided to take my own look at one of the sources most pastors use for data…The Barna Group. My NPO revolves around aging ministry leaders, which sparked an interest in the data in the Barna Group regarding aging pastors. [5]
In their research release on March 1, 2017, they stated that the age demographic of faith leaders has shifted greatly. In the chart below we see “the median age of Protestant clergy was 44 years old. One in three pastors was under the age of 40, and one in four was over 55. Just 6 percent were 65 or older. Twenty-five years later, the average age is 54. Only one in seven pastors is under 40, and half are over 55. The percentage of church leaders 65 and older has nearly tripled, meaning there are now more pastors in the oldest age bracket than there are leaders younger than 40.”[6]
However, now I have learned to look deeper. I went beyond reading the data and wanted to know the “how” behind the study. I was pleased to find more information on, not only how the data was conducted, but also what precautions were taken to insure viable counts. Barna Group added in the sampling error for the study as being a minus 3 percentage point with a “95% confidence level”. [7]
I still may not be a statistics guru but am seeing that looking beyond the numbers can serve as a needed safeguard for academic research as well as data that pertains to daily living.
[1] Tom Chivers and David Chivers, How to Read Numbers: A Guide to Statistics in the News (and Knowing When to Trust Them) (London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 2021). P. 15.
[2] Ibid, p. 4.
[3] Ibid, p. 104.
[4] Trust in Research — the Ethics of Knowledge Production, Garry Gray. TEDxVictoria, 2014. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSV4VZ8gdUQ.
[5] “The Aging of America’s Pastors,” Barna Group, accessed February 8, 2023, https://www.barna.com/research/aging-americas-pastors/.
[6] Ibid.
[7] Ibid.
About the Author
Esther Edwards
Esther has served in ministry leadership for over 35 years. She is an ordained minister, an ICF and CCLC certified coach, and licensed coach trainer. Her and her husband have launched their own coaching practice, Enjoy the Journey Leadership Coaching and seek to train ministry leaders in the powerful skill of coaching. Esther loves hiking, reading, and experiencing new coffee shops with friends and family. She enjoys the journey with her husband, Keith, their four daughters, sons-in-law, and their four, soon to be five, beautiful grandchildren.12 responses to “Beyond the Numbers”
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Hi Esther, Thank you for sharing your story and how easily we can get frightened by not knowing what is behind the statistics we read. I’m sorry you had to go through such a scary time. You gave me a brilliant question to consider, “…how HAVE the other people checked?” I notice that some research is a response to previous research either building upon an original piece of research and/or coming up with different data that contradicts. Have you come across that in your research yet? If so, how do you address those differences?
I have not yet encountered varying numbers, but then again, I have not really been as aware as I am now. I was surprised, however, to find the agreeing statistics surrounding the thought that most people go through a mid-life crisis. The numbers actually show the opposite to be true.Only 10-20% face a crisis.[1] The sensationalism around this season of life is termed as a Western myth. [2]
I’m curious. Have you come across varying numbers in your research?
[1] Lachman ME (2004). Development in Midlife. Annual Review of Psychology, 55(1), 305–331.
[2] Infurna, Frank J et al. “Midlife in the 2020s: Opportunities and challenges.” The American psychologist vol. 75,4 (2020): 470-485. doi:10.1037/amp0000591
You highlight an important reality that affects us every day. We have so much information floating around us, available in just a few clicks. And so much of it is not reliable. I imagine you will run into this more and more as you continue in your area of research. Which statistical fallacy are you seeing crop up the most frequently? Or if you haven’t gotten there quite yet, which one(s) do you guess will be the most prevalent?
Hi, Kim,
The statistical fallacy that often crops up is small sampling sizes. There is much to be found regarding my NPO in broader contexts, which I plan to use as well. However, when trying to hone in on numbers associated with specific ministry contexts, there is much less to be found and when found, it is limited in sampling size and demographic. I have to be honest, I would like to pursue my own survey with a larger demographic of ministers, but am not sure how to strategically enlist a larger number of participants with a varying demographic. Would you have any ideas in this area?
Thank you for sharing your story. Praise God that Keith’s cancer was detected early. I am praying for his continued health and overall wellness. I have had a recent health scare and I can totally identify with the terrifying dive into the medical statistics that google so easily provides. It can be quite overwhelming.
You wrote:
” I still may not be a statistics guru but am seeing that looking beyond the numbers can serve as a needed safeguard for academic research as well as data that pertains to daily living.”
Yes, yes, and yes…I totally agree. It is so important to look beyond the numbers with an openness to finding the truth.
Thank you, Jonita. Keith’s cancer did return 2 years ago but was again detected very early and treated immediately. The numbers do predict that it tends to continue to return. Thank you for your prayers.
I have to remind myself that ultimately the Lord is in control. We don’t always understand the why of our journeys but I’m so thankful that we can trust God whether the numbers are in our favor or not. He is Emmanuel, God with us.
I don’t want to make light of your husband’s cancer diagnosis, but it was the opposite of what usually happens when you Google a medical condition. “Hey, I have this hangnail that won’t go away, let me Google it … Oh no I have finger cancer!” In your case you Googled cancer and found out that it was probably going to be okay.
Recently Toronto had city elections to vote for city councillors and Mayor. in our riding (what we call a district) there are about 100,000 people. In past years you would never see a poll about who is leading in a specific riding because it wasn’t cost effective to do it. However, this past year I was surprised to see several polls over the course of the election. Even stranger, in Toronto, you can only campaign for four weeks leading up to the election so to have one poll, let along more, was highly unusual.
A friend of mine made a point of publishing in our local community Facebook group how the polls were conducted and it was eye-opening to see so many of them had spoken to less than 100 people and they might have all been interviewed outside the pharmacy on senior’s day. Highly unlikely a representative cross-sample of our riding was taken into consideration for that poll.
Hindsight is 20/20 and after the election was over, there wasn’t one poll I had seen that accurately predicted the election results.
This is more of a reflective response to your post but I do have one question for you: how much has the “needle moved” for you personally after having read this resource around seeing data? Are you less, a lot less, more or a lot more suspicious (is that the right word?) of data in the media.
A poll of one, so we know the results will be accurate and reliable.
Esther~ Wow! Good job digging for the truth:
However, now I have learned to look deeper. I went beyond reading the data and wanted to know the “how” behind the study. I was pleased to find more information on, not only how the data was conducted, but also what precautions were taken to insure viable counts. Barna Group added in the sampling error for the study as being a minus 3 percentage point with a “95% confidence level”. [7]
You digging deeper reminds of how often as Christians we claim “God promised me. . . ” and then fill in the blank. When you probe further into what we think God promised, it wasn’t a promise at all but an idea of what we wanted the Scriptures to say. With that being said, I do know there are specific promises in Scripture we fail to hold on to. Such confidence requires doing exactly what you just did! Thanks for your thorough post.
So true, Pam. I have witnessed many times where people have become disillusioned by trying to force God’s hand through a claimed promise. It’s just not as popular to talk about the cruciformed life of trusting God no matter the outcome.
I too appreciate how you “looked behind the numbers”. I think that is a big part of this isn’t it, actually taking time to see how they got to these numbers and the quality of their research. I’m glad your husband continues to fight the odds, or maybe in research, to be on the hopeful side of the odds. Your NPO sounds interesting. I’m curious what your focus is on aging ministers! It looks like the median age is getting older, are you studying longevity in ministry or lack of young pastors? Just curious.
Jana, thank you for your interest.
Yes. The median age is getting older and would be a good topic as well. However, my NPO revolves around
credentialed ministry leaders between the ages of 50 and 65 years of age. This demographic of ministers have major life transitions hitting from all sides and often question their own purpose, relevance,
and significance. They also have underdeveloped support systems to be able to process and envision new areas of calling. I believe I will be developing some sort of coaching paradigm to meet the need. We’ll see how it evolves.
Thank you for your enlightening writing, Esther!
I am intrigued by the integrity issues surrounding the data and research results you discussed in your writing. That could be relevant in the context of the church, where it would be beneficial for people to assess the advice and sermons delivered by their pastor for any potential biases or conflicts of interest. In your opinion, is this a feasible scenario in today’s society?