{"id":41019,"date":"2025-03-06T18:32:14","date_gmt":"2025-03-07T02:32:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.georgefox.edu\/dlgp\/?p=41019"},"modified":"2025-03-06T18:32:14","modified_gmt":"2025-03-07T02:32:14","slug":"olympian-in-jumping-to-conclusions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.georgefox.edu\/dlgp\/olympian-in-jumping-to-conclusions\/","title":{"rendered":"Olympian in Jumping to Conclusions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I appreciate Daniel Kahneman&#8217;s candor in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow.[1] I am rather certain I understand his precepts of System 1 and System 2 thinking. His writing style is engaging and almost playful at times. \u00a0How he broke down human cognition and choice-making into these two thinking systems is brilliant. I in no way want to disparage his work as a psychologist or an economist. I was tracking well until Chapter 25 of his aforementioned book. At the beginning of this Chapter, he says, &#8220;Unlike Econs, the Humans that psychologists know have a System 1. Their view of the world is limited by the information that is available at a given moment (WYSIATI), and therefore, they cannot be as consistent and logical as Econs. It was here where I was stopped in my tracks.<\/p>\n<p>His use of the acronym WYSIATI (what you see is all there is) caught me off guard. I sat back in my chair and pondered as it struck a dissonant chord in my heart and head. Is all I can see, all there is? I am reminded of the story about Thomas&#8217;s encounter with Jesus after his resurrection from the dead. After placing his hands on the wounds of Jesus, Thomas said to Jesus, &#8220;My Lord and my God!&#8221; Jesus said to him, \u201cBecause you have seen Me, have you <i>now<\/i> believed? Blessed <i>are<\/i> they who did not see, and <i>yet<\/i> believed.\u201d[4] There are scores of verses in the Bible that command us to walk by faith and not by sight. I write this at the risk of taking too much of a margin of variation in my thinking, and I am certainly desirous of dialogue on this matter.<\/p>\n<p>I suppose I am keenly tuned into this idea because I have had the privilege of living a life that has taken me to the most dangerous places on earth, both as a missionary and a soldier. My mind is flooded with memories of decisions that I have had to make in the moment, with only the counsel of a few Sergeants and a lot of training. I have had to make many System 1 decisions simply due to the impracticability of System 2 and the limits that time places on us. Usually, it is here where I regale you with war stories, but I will spare you this time as I continue to only be able to type with my left hand. I will end this section by saying that through the course of my life, I have gained a lot of experience in System 1 thinking in some very precarious situations. If Jumping to Conclusions was an Olympic event, I could add a Gold medal to my repertoire of my life&#8217;s achievements.<\/p>\n<p>What are some of the valuable takeaways of Kahneman&#8217;s book? His discussion on the Illusion of Understanding is quite helpful for me. Even though my level of understanding over the years felt confident, I admit that I always knew that there were second\u2014and third-order effects that would always sneak in and cause the decision-maker to have to adapt her conclusions with new variables in hand. I would almost consider this System 1.5 thinking. In a fast-paced environment, there is a constant need to iterate over and over again.<\/p>\n<p>I was intrigued by Kahneman&#8217;s Prospect Theory. His thoughts on how people evaluate risk are quite interesting. His choice of examples of risk problems did not stimulate my thinking as adequate to change my perspective on risk-taking, but I understand his modular thinking. It appears to me that the risk choices we make are in direct proportion to how much we stand to gain and how much we stand to lose. Working among extremely destitute people can change your perspective over time. These people are more likely to take risks because of what they stand to lose. They already feel as if they have nothing, so why not take a chance? They are far more prone in most instances to take greater risks because what they have to gain mammoths over what they stand to lose. I would have liked to see him delve into the effect of loss on taking risks. I know he touched on it, but it didn&#8217;t feel sufficient, as loss is an important aspect of risk-taking.<\/p>\n<p>I understand that Daniel Kahneman had a different worldview and a different religious perspective than an evangelical Christian. I also understand that &#8220;a natural person does not accept the things of the Spirit of God, for they are foolishness to him; and he cannot understand them, because they are spiritually discerned.&#8221; Please do not interpret my thoughts on this as I think we should reject all natural thinking. Not at all. I just believe I need to always have my spiritual antenna up as I \u00a0consider substantive matters.<\/p>\n<p>[1] Daniel Kahneman. <em>Thinking, Fast and Slow<\/em>. 1st pbk. ed. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2013.<\/p>\n<p>[2] Kahneman, 269.<\/p>\n<p>[3]\u00a0Kahneman, 278.<\/p>\n<p>[4] John 20:24-29 (New American Standard Bible)<\/p>\n<p>[5] Winerman, L. (2012, February 1). A machine for jumping to conclusions. Monitor on Psychology, 43(2). https:\/\/www.apa.org\/monitor\/2012\/02\/conclusions<\/p>\n<p>[6] 1 Corinthians 2:14 (New American Standard Bible)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I appreciate Daniel Kahneman&#8217;s candor in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow.[1] I am rather certain I understand his precepts of System 1 and System 2 thinking. His writing style is engaging and almost playful at times. \u00a0How he broke down human cognition and choice-making into these two thinking systems is brilliant. I in no [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":215,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2052],"class_list":["post-41019","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-kahneman","cohort-dlgp04"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.georgefox.edu\/dlgp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41019","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.georgefox.edu\/dlgp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.georgefox.edu\/dlgp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.georgefox.edu\/dlgp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/215"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.georgefox.edu\/dlgp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41019"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.georgefox.edu\/dlgp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41019\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41026,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.georgefox.edu\/dlgp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41019\/revisions\/41026"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.georgefox.edu\/dlgp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41019"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.georgefox.edu\/dlgp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41019"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.georgefox.edu\/dlgp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41019"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}