Elections should be about something. Elections are expensive and cumbersome, and therefore are precious, our main opportunity to connect our government to the major questions it needs to answer.
An election that isn’t about anything important is an empty exercise. It may stir interest as a sporting event – a very long horse race – or as a celebrity reality show. But if an election isn’t about fundamental issues of human existence and political theory, it’s a sham, nothing more than very expensive patriotic bunting draped across the real business of governing. Continue reading
Political scientists and commentators generally assume that a candidate needs a lot of money to successfully run for president. The candidate may not need to have the most money, the experts tell us, but they need to have a lot of it.
This year almost gave us a chance to put that thesis to a stern test. Continue reading
Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics has outlined a scenario similar to the one I told you about in my last post: current trends extended to the end of the Republican primary season, leading to a brokered convention. He offers a particularly intriguing map of county by county results so far.
GOP as of 2-9-12
The map is like a puzzle with only a few of the pieces in place. Most of the picture is missing. But enough is there (Nevada, Colorado, Missouri-Iowa-Minnesota, Florida, South Carolina, New Hampshire, Maine) to suggest how the rest of the map might fill in. Continue reading
After Rick Santorum’s February 7 sweep of Colorado, Minnesota and Maine, I spent a pleasant hour with CNN’s Delegate Forecaster page where you can see what happens when you assume various things about how the remaining GOP primary races go.
The results: if the sum of what we’ve seen so far is the dynamic of the race going forward, there won’t be a Republican nominee until after the first ballot at the convention.